Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 11.096146 12.406391 13.900239 15.750371 18.010327 20.722338 24.289021
2024-10-20 9.120302 10.628567 12.468293 14.932580 18.238862 22.671100 29.355779
2024-10-27 7.932454 9.485826 11.463699 14.254692 18.253440 24.075002 33.883235
2024-11-03 7.914966 9.766886 12.253925 16.007527 21.886337 31.529692 50.896754
2024-11-10 7.591549 9.578460 12.351306 16.752673 24.147471 37.564977 69.364754
2024-11-17 6.925412 8.838471 11.562169 16.003431 23.760363 38.683912 77.960542
2024-11-24 6.531953 8.444162 11.229073 15.913554 24.480619 42.200164 95.838353
2024-12-01 6.158636 8.044336 10.841640 15.669479 24.850538 45.097598 115.256848
2024-12-08 5.877970 7.757132 10.596626 15.627372 25.593018 49.160360 145.153550
2024-12-15 5.677138 7.572671 10.492808 15.813034 26.834158 55.072359 196.736272
2024-12-22 5.383789 7.226370 10.097358 15.415900 26.738061 57.261885 234.833349
2024-12-29 5.187197 7.017045 9.909177 15.381602 27.450585 62.293361 315.863988
2025-01-05 4.871255 6.616225 9.394670 14.710607 26.657205 62.470427 361.716156
2025-01-12 4.569406 6.223536 8.870871 13.975270 25.599518 61.402199 394.422722
2025-01-19 4.313121 5.891015 8.429477 13.362632 24.750781 60.831484 439.326635
2025-01-26 4.432083 6.163896 9.045313 14.943887 29.886236 88.139521 2461.266711
2025-02-02 4.395860 6.179814 9.208904 15.613090 32.846837 110.972170 162867.174372
2025-02-09 4.176887 5.880450 8.780945 14.940204 31.654536 109.119474 NaN
2025-02-16 4.052471 5.734147 8.624932 14.859367 32.292671 119.958712 NaN
2025-02-23 3.918550 5.565589 8.417237 14.639711 32.445339 128.061557 NaN
2025-03-02 3.816326 5.446246 8.294046 14.601798 33.200022 142.425185 NaN
2025-03-09 3.745269 5.376744 8.260033 14.768927 34.720436 167.380479 NaN
2025-03-16 3.616878 5.202960 8.016999 14.411299 34.280024 172.587911 NaN